In the third quarter of 2026, Moraga had the lowest average single-family sale price of Lamorinda's three towns. It also sold its homes for more per square foot than Orinda, and it was the only one of the three where the average premium over asking price grew between spring and summer. For a buyer who picked Moraga as the more affordable option, the offer will feel like Lafayette even though the total is smaller.
The town-level figures here come from Conrad Bassett's quarterly reviews in Lamorinda Weekly, which use Contra Costa Association of Realtors MLS data. The Q3 review covers closings from July 1 through Sept. 30, 2026.
The offer is where Moraga surprises people
The most useful number for someone about to write an offer is what homes sold for compared with their asking price. Between July and September 2026, Moraga single-family homes sold for an average of 102.9% of final asking price. Orinda came in at 98.5% and Lafayette at 101%.
Spring looked different. In Q2 2026, Orinda averaged 103.2% of asking, Lafayette just over 103%, and Moraga 101.6%, which was the lowest of the three. In one quarter, Moraga went from the smallest premium in Lamorinda to the largest. It was also the only town whose number went up.
These ratios are measured against the final asking price, which is the price after any reductions. A home that came down in price and then sold at its new ask counts as 100%. So 102.9% is the average premium over the last price a seller was willing to post.
| Q3 2026, single-family | Lafayette | Moraga | Orinda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closings | 84 | 29 | 53 |
| Average sale price | $2,112,426 | $1,873,294 | $2,378,031 |
| Average price per sq. ft. | $835.62 | $817.84 | $746.18 |
| Average sale-to-final-asking | 101% | 102.9% | 98.5% |
| Sold at or above asking | 52 of 84 | 18 of 29 | 26 of 53 |
| Average days on market | 22 | 22 | 29 |
Why the lower average price is misleading
Moraga's average sale price in Q3 2026 was about $239,000 below Lafayette's and about $505,000 below Orinda's. That gap looks like a discount. The per-square-foot figures show it is mostly a difference in house size.
Dividing each town's average sale price by its average price per square foot gives a rough sense of the typical home that sold. This is a back-of-envelope estimate, because averages of ratios do not divide cleanly. It comes out to roughly 2,290 square feet in Moraga, 2,530 in Lafayette and 3,190 in Orinda for Q3 2026. Orinda's average price is also pulled up by a range that reached $9.95 million that quarter. Moraga's top sale was $3.15 million.
Put a fixed size on it to see what that means for a budget. At Q3 2026 averages, a 2,500-square-foot home works out to about $2.04 million at Moraga's $817.84 per square foot and about $1.87 million at Orinda's $746.18. That is a gap of roughly $179,000, with Moraga as the more expensive of the two. These are town-wide averages and not a value for any particular house. They still undercut the idea that Moraga is the cheaper place to buy space.
The pattern was the same in spring, so one quarter did not produce it. In Q2 2026, Moraga sold at $870.09 per square foot against Orinda's $831.56. Lafayette was at $913.16. In both quarters, Moraga's price per foot sat much closer to Lafayette's than its total price suggests.
The premium grew while fewer homes went over
A higher average premium with fewer over-asking sales is a pattern buyers should understand before setting an offer strategy. In Q2 2026, 31 of Moraga's 43 single-family sales closed at or above final asking, about 72%. In Q3, 18 of 29 did, about 62%.
So the share of homes going over asking fell from spring to summer, yet the average premium rose from 101.6% to 102.9%. The likeliest reading is that the homes that drew competition drew more of it. Summer in Moraga was less about every listing getting bid up and more about some listings getting bid up a lot. With just 29 sales, a few strong results can move the average.
The comparison with a year ago is starker. In Q3 2025, only 11 of 27 Moraga sales closed at or above asking, the average ratio was 99.3%, and homes took an average of 41 days to sell. In Q3 2026 that dropped to 22 days. Over 12 months, Moraga went from a market where buyers could often negotiate to one where the asking price was often the starting point.
Supply in Moraga barely moved
Inventory helps explain why Moraga kept its leverage while Orinda's eased. Bassett's counts include all property types, condos as well as single-family homes:
- Moraga: 34 homes or condos listed on July 3, 33 on Oct. 6, and 37 at the same time in 2025.
- Orinda: 31 listed on July 3, 33 on Oct. 6, and 56 a year earlier.
- Lafayette: 60 listed on July 3, 49 on Oct. 6, and 67 a year earlier.
Orinda's year-over-year drop in listings is the big change on paper, but Orinda started from a much higher number. Moraga's supply was already tight in 2025 and stayed tight through the summer. Moraga's 33 listings also include its condo stock, and Bassett reported asking prices as low as $320,000 for a Moraga condo. That means the count of detached homes for sale was smaller than 33.
Bassett ties the wider Lamorinda picture to rates and a reluctance to sell. Writing in Lamorinda Weekly, he notes that owners who refinanced at very low rates "are reluctant to sell their homes because they do not want to have to give up this 'cheap money,'" which "will help limit supply." He explains the softer sale-to-list results elsewhere in the same review:
"This is likely a factor of a rise in interest rates and of sellers realizing that they needed to be more realistic in pricing and buyers understanding that there were fewer buyers to compete with so they were not as aggressive in their offers."
That explanation fits Orinda's 98.5% well. Moraga's 102.9% in Q3 2026 points the other way, in a town with a narrower price band and a shortage of listings that held steady through the summer.
Moraga's condo numbers swing too much to read as a trend
Attached homes are a separate and much smaller market in Moraga, and their quarterly counts move a lot. Lamorinda Weekly recorded three Moraga condo or townhome closings in Q1 2026, priced from $450,000 to $1 million. Q2 had 15 closings, up from 11 a year earlier, ranging from $320,000 to $1.4 million. Q3 had 11, down from 24 in Q3 2025, ranging from $375,000 to $1,410,250.
Going from 3 to 15 to 11 closings in three quarters, with 24 a year ago, is how a small sample behaves. A single quarter's condo count in Moraga says little about where condo prices are going. A condo buyer will learn more from recent sales within the specific complex than from the town-wide total.
Where fall picked up
The Q3 closings reflect contracts mostly signed in summer, and fall activity was still going on when the quarter closed. As of Oct. 6, Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda together had 47 pending sales, compared with 50 a year earlier. Seven of those received acceptable offers in the first six days of October.
The county figures point the same way. The California Association of Realtors reported a September 2026 median of $870,000 for existing single-family homes in Contra Costa County. Unsold inventory stood at 2.7 months, against 2.9 a year earlier, and the median time on market was 19 days, against 22 a year earlier. Those are countywide numbers, so they are context for Moraga and not a stand-in for it.
FAQ
Is Moraga cheaper than Orinda? Moraga is cheaper by average sale price, which was $1,873,294 against $2,378,031 in Q3 2026. It is not cheaper per square foot. Moraga averaged $817.84 per square foot that quarter and Orinda $746.18.
Did Moraga prices fall from spring to summer? The average single-family price fell from $1,983,198 in Q2 2026 to $1,873,294 in Q3, and price per square foot fell from $870.09 to $817.84. Over the same period, the average premium over asking rose. That suggests a different mix of homes sold in summer, while competition for the most sought-after listings got stronger.
What price range did Moraga homes sell in? In Q3 2026, Moraga single-family sales ranged from $1.25 million to $3.15 million. In Q2 2026 the range was $975,000 to $3.31 million.
If you're working out what a Moraga home is worth per square foot, or whether a particular listing is likely to draw a bid over asking, Paddy Kehoe Team can go through recent sales with you and look at the house the way a builder would, including its size, condition and layout. Schedule a free Home Strategy Session and bring the listing you're considering.
